Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor

Within the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The move to assault another independent nation and abduct its leader – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.