Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
